If the last three years of AMA Supercross felt unpredictable, 2026 looks like utter chaos wrapped in orange, red, green, and blue plastics. Team changes have scrambled the hierarchy, injuries have reshuffled trajectories but the sport’s biggest names are all still itching to go to battle.
There’s one thing ADB’s crystal ball shows clearly, and that is that the 2026 season has the potential to be the most competitive 450SX field in Supercross history.
The biggest stars are healthy. The manufacturers have doubled down. And the kids, especially the Australians and Kiwis, are no longer “the future.” They’re the present.
Let’s look at what we’re in for.
THE MAIN EVENT: 450SX
The Super Kid
Jett Lawrence enters 2026 as the sport’s central figure. The smoothest, most mentally stable, and most complete rider in the field. Even in a “down” 2025 that saw his first major adversity since joining the premier class, Jett still reminded everyone how terrifyingly good he is when he’s on.
The crystal ball suggests he arrives in 2026 with restored hunger, cleaner preparation, and a Honda program fine-tuned specifically to keep him upright and consistent. If he eliminates the mid-season mistakes that cost him dearly last year, Jett remains the favourite.
The only rider who can beat Jett Lawrence consistently is… Jett Lawrence.
But 2026 isn’t going to let him stroll to another title. Because the wolves have regrouped.
Green with envy
If pure speed won championships, Chase Sexton would have three by now. The KTM sort of gave him stability at last, but now he is on green and sending it at Pipeline, Hawaii. But, his late-season form in 2025 hinted he’s finally worked through the front-end skittishness that previously haunted him.
Now comes the hard part: turning speed into a title run against the deepest field he’s ever faced. With Prado and Tomac now under his old tent, the pressure is on for Sexton to prove it wasn’t him that let the orange brand slip.
Crystal ball says he wins multiple races but still needs to prove he can keep the wheels beneath him when the pressure spikes.
The orange experiment
The shock of the off-season, Eli Tomac, the most decorated SX rider of the modern era, has joined Red Bull KTM.
A steel-frame KTM. With a cable clutch. For the first time in his pro career.
It’s unheard of. And yet… it also feels like the last big gamble of a man who still believes he can win. Tomac’s immediate adaptation will dictate whether he’s title relevant or merely podium dangerous. The crystal ball says he starts the year slower as he adjusts to the KTM’s unique handling, then becomes a serious threat from Round 7 onward.
A healthy Tomac on a comfortable bike is still a title contender. A healthy Tomac on an unfamiliar bike is the great unknown of 2026.
Meanwhile, two-time MXGP World Champion Jorge Prado returns to familiar KTM Group machinery after the failed Kawasaki experiment. Gone is the green chassis he never truly gelled with; back is the bike that carried him to world titles.
Prado’s speed and technique outdoors are unquestioned. Indoors? He’s been improving every year. He now brings genuine holeshot danger, clean technique and a drive to re-establish his value after an up-and-down 2025.
If his whoops speed has truly improved, he’s a podium regular. Our crystal ball puts Prado inside the top five overall.
The quiet assassin reloads
Cooper Webb thrives on chaos. He thrives on rivals and he thrives on being written off.
Returning with another year of Yamaha refinement should give him the one thing he lacked early in 2025: a stable platform to apply his brutally efficient race-craft.
Never count out Cooper Webb. If anything, 2026 feels like the perfect storm for him to steal wins when others implode. He’s the least flashy rider in the top tier but the most ruthless.
Crystal ball: 2–3 wins. Title threat if things get spicy.
The shadow is gone
Hunter Lawrence enters the year healthier than he started 2025, with growing confidence indoors and a renewed base of speed. Although Jett gets the headlines, Hunter’s trajectory has quietly become one of consistent upward steps: a 250SX champion, then a podium threat in 450SX, then a rider capable of beating anyone on his night.
This feels like the year Hunter stops being “Jett’s brother” and becomes a week-in, week-out contender if not winner. Crystal ball says multiple podiums and at least one breakthrough win. We reckon he’ll park it right in and around Jett every round.
The ageless talent
Ken Roczen continues defying logic, gravity and injuries. His consistency, technique and ability to reinvent himself every season keeps him perennially relevant. He may not be the outright favourite, but he’s the most polished rider in the field.
Expect more podiums, a couple of wins, and the biggest fan reaction at every round. Kickstart Kenny remains Supercross royalty and may sniff out a win.
Last chance at glory
Jason Anderson is entering the later phase of his career, but when the track suits him, he’s still magic: loose, fast, angry and impossibly efficient. The Kawasaki program is a distant memory now as he lines up on a Suzuki with Roczen. Guess we’ll have to come up with more alliteration running with the kickstart theme.
He won’t be a title threat, but he will absolutely play spoiler. Let’s hope he doesn’t get in the way of our Lawrence boys.
The People’s Champ 2.0
Aaron Plessinger stays with KTM and remains the most beloved rider in the pits. His Whoop speed is up. His aggression is up. His confidence with Prado and Tomac joining the program is surprisingly… also up.
AP7’s biggest challenge remains starts. Fix that, and he’s a consistent top-five guy.
The disruptor remains dangerous
Barcia enters another season with pace that can challenge anyone, but inconsistency that can undo everything. Still, nobody changes the feel of a race quite like Barcia. And he will be on a Ducati and looking to show off what it can do.
Expect chaos. And lots of it.
The late bloomer finally hits stride
Justin Cooper’s whoop improvement and steady adaptation to the 450 have made him one of the most underrated riders entering 2026. He won’t dominate but he will upset the order more than once.
The big surprise move
Garrett Marchbanks’ signing with Monster Energy Kawasaki’s 450 team is a quiet but massive off-season story.
This is not a rookie. This is a rider with 28 starts on a 450, including a second in a Pro Motocross moto (High Point), a fifth overall at Southwick and 14 top-10 finishes outdoors
Now he gets his childhood dream ride — the KX450SR.
The crystal ball loves this move. Expect career-best results, multiple top-fives, and maybe even a podium if the stars align.
THE DARK HORSES
Mikkel Haarup (Triumph TF 450-X)
Haarup remains on Triumph in 2026 for AMA Motocross but on a TF 450-X and the bike is progressing faster than expected. The TF platform is rapidly improving, and Triumph’s SX program isn’t far behind. Expect occasional flashes indoors and real danger outdoors.
Malcolm Stewart
If healthy, always a podium threat. But “if healthy” is doing a lot of work.
Dylan Ferrandis
Speed still elite. Starts still not.
KEY STORYLINES TO WATCH
Tomac on KTM — will it work?
If he adapts, he wins. If he doesn’t, it’s a farewell tour.
Jett vs Sexton Round 2
The rivalry that could define this era.
Prado’s full SX breakthrough
The talent is undeniable. The question is timing.
The Lawrence Brothers together at full power
A marketing dream and a podium nightmare for everyone else.
The KTM Mega Team
Plessinger, Prado, Tomac and Sexton under one tent is wild.
CRYSTAL BALL CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
Mitch Lees:
Jett Lawrence
Hunter Lawrence
Cooper Webb
Jeff Briggs
Jett Lawrence
Elit Tomac
Hunter Lawrence
Geoff Braico
Jett Lawrence
Hunter Lawrence
Cooper Webb
Mat Boyd
Jett Lawrence
Elit Tomac
Hunter Lawrence
Wes Mills
Hunter Lawrence
Jett Lawrence
Ken Roczen
THE 250 CLASS
While the 450 field is stacked, the 250 class is a powder keg of young talent, especially from Australasia.
Cole Davies (New Zealand)
The Kiwi phenom continues to turn heads with his intensity and race-craft. If his starts improve, he’s a championship contender.
Julien Beaumer (Red Bull KTM)
Recovering from an L3 burst fracture, expected back by Pro Motocross. Indoors, if healthy, he’s a title favourite.
Haiden Deegan, Jo Shimoda, Chance Hymas, Levi Kitchen, Nate Thrasher
The usual suspects will still dominate headlines, but the depth is creeping up behind them.
